Exit and returns

The returns engine answers the question scoring does not: if this company works, what does this cheque return? It is deterministic arithmetic, with no model call anywhere in the code path, and it is labelled as such in the report.

What it computes

From the round terms it derives implied ownership, then applies graduation-weighted dilution round by round to exit. Five scenarios span failure to home run, each with a probability and an exit multiple, and the probability-weighted sum is the expected MOIC.

Where the numbers come from

Scenario probabilities start from published base rates, drawn from 19 dated, named publications, then re-anchor to the deal's own revenue and sector. Every base rate is cited in the report, next to the number it produced.

Return the fund

The model also states the multiple this specific cheque would need to return your fund, which is the number a partner meeting actually argues about. Like everything in Aventro, it is decision support, never a recommendation.